Battle Hardened gains victory at Tampa Bay

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lightly raced Battle Hardened came from off the pace to capture Saturday's $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The 1 1/16-mile race is the final local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10.

Ridden by Julien Leparoux, Battle Hardened was bet down from 12-1 in the morning-line to 9-2 when the starting gate sprung open. Trainer Todd Pletcher's Ecabroni was the 7-2 favorite in the 11-horse field.

State of Play, making his first start on dirt, set the pace with Fox Rules in second and Gulfstream Park Derby champ Reveron running in third. Battle Hardened was fourth as the field went up the backstretch.

On the turn for home Reveron took the lead as Battle Hardened gained ground from the outside. Leparoux had his mount draw even with the leader and pulled ahead inside the furlong pole.

Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Battle Hardened hit the wire 1 1/4-lengths in front of runner-up and co-favorite Prospective. Reveron had to settle for third followed by Ravelo's Boy, Neck 'n Neck, Fox Rules, State of Play, Burning Time, Moroccan Brew, Holy Highway and Ecabroni.

The time for the Sam F. Davis Stakes was 1:44.58 on a fast track.

"He was very professional today," said Leparoux, who was riding Battle Hardened for the first time. "He broke good and put me in the right spot right away. In a big field, I knew we'd be in traffic. When he settled near the inside, he relaxed the way I wanted him to.

"I was inside, inside and then on the second turn, I was able to get out and this horse has a long stride and he kept going. Eddie told me to warm him up good and it went well. I knew he was a maiden, of course, but Eddie told me his last race at Gulfstream was kind of like a win because he had a bad post and some bad luck. He ran big today."

Battle Hardened used the Davis as his maiden win after three previous starts. Owned by Michael B. Tabor and Mrs. John Magnier, the chestnut colt picked up $120,000 with his first career victory.

"This was a really good bunch of quality horses, but no stars, and that was one reason we decided to take a shot today," said Kenneally. "He's been training brilliantly and we were happy with how he was coming into the race, so we decided to come here and get some of the big money.

"We'll definitely take a real good look at the Tampa Bay Derby and it's very likely. We knew when his races started to go longer he was going to be a better horse. Two-turn races are what he wants to do and he is very good at it."

Battle Hardened paid $11.00, $5.60 and $4.40. Prospective returned $5.20 and $3.60, and Reveron paid $3.60 to show.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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