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11/06/2011 - Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When is Kyle Busch finally going to grow up?
NASCAR's drama king has really done it this time. After Busch deliberately wrecked Ron Hornaday Jr. in the early going of Friday night's Camping World Truck Series event at Texas Motor Speedway, NASCAR parked him for the Nationwide and Sprint Cup Series races here this weekend.
Busch might be facing further actions by NASCAR, as well as Joe Gibbs Racing.
After getting married last December, the "rowdy" side of Busch was supposed to disappear. Not so in 2011.
Consider how disorderly Busch has been so far this year.
In May, he was placed on probation for four weeks and received a $25,000 fine for his post-race physical altercation with Richard Childress Racing driver Kevin Harvick at Darlington.
The feud between Busch and Harvick has been on-going throughout the season, especially after Busch's retaliation against Hornaday at Texas. Hornaday, a record four-time Truck Series champion, presently drives for Kevin Harvick Inc.
Several weeks after his Darlington incident, Busch's troubles continued when he was cited for driving his Lexus LFA sports car at 128 mph in a 45 mph zone near the North Carolina town of Troutman. He later pled guilty to the charges, in which he received a $1,000 fine and had his state drivers license revoked for 45 days.
Then in June, he was involved in an altercation with team owner Richard Childress at Kansas. The skirmish between the two occurred in the garage area shortly after the truck race there, with Childress allegedly punching Busch several times. Busch purposely hit the side of Joey Coulter's truck during the cool-down lap in the Kansas race. Coulter, a rookie this season, drives for RCR.
Texas was certainly the big one for Busch, as his non-participation in Sunday's 500-mile Sprint Cup race will indeed end any hopes of him winning the Sprint Cup Series title. He came to Texas trailing leader Carl Edwards by 57 points in the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship standings.
What's most disturbing about his retaliation against Hornaday is that he put Hornaday's life in danger, especially at a time when driver safety has become a major issue following the fatal crash of Dan Wheldon in last month's IndyCar race at Las Vegas. Busch hit the back of Hornaday at a high speed and then slammed him hard into the outside wall during the caution.
Hornaday came to Texas 15 points behind leader Austin Dillon in the truck standings, but Busch ruined Hornaday's opportunity to claim another series title. He trails Dillon by 48 points with only one race to go -- November 18 at Homestead, FL.
On Saturday night, Busch released a statement to apologize for his latest outburst.
"I want to sincerely apologize for my actions during Friday night's Truck Series race at Texas," Busch said in his statement. "I apologize to my fans, all my sponsors, everyone at Joe Gibbs Racing and Kyle Busch Motorsports...I'd also like to apologize to Ron Hornaday Jr., and everyone associated with the No.33 team in the Truck Series."
Busch also accepted NASCAR's actions taken against him.
"I understand why I was taken out of the car for the rest of the weekend," he noted. "NASCAR officials had to act, and I accept their punishment and take full responsibility for my actions. As a racecar driver, the hardest thing to do is to sit on the sidelines listening to cars on the track when you know you should be out there competing. For this, I have no one to blame but myself."
Busch attended Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Texas, sitting atop his team's pit box and watching Michael McDowell drive his car around the fast 1.5-mile track.
There's no doubt that Busch's latest escapade has jeopardized JGR's relationship with its sponsors for his No.18 team in NASCAR's top-two series.
"I think right now we're just trying to handle the first things first for us, and there's so many things to consider and so many people to meet with," team owner Joe Gibbs said during a press conference on Saturday at Texas. "I think we're still early in the process, and we're trying to work our way through it as best and fast as we can."
Busch became the third driver to be suspended for a Cup race within the past decade.
Harvick sat out the 2002 spring Cup race at Martinsville one day after he was parked for rough driving in the truck event there. NASCAR also grounded Robby Gordon for the August 2007 race at Pocono following his on-track altercation with Marcos Ambrose in the inaugural Nationwide event at Montreal.
Prior to the start of the 2010 season, NASCAR adopted its "boys, have at it" policy, in which the sanctioning body relaxed on patrolling its drivers in handling affairs on the racetrack.
But in some cases, NASCAR officials have been forced to take actions lighter than the one they did against Busch, particularly the incident between Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski in last year's spring Cup race at Atlanta. Edwards intentionally wrecked Keselowski, putting him airborne and then into the wall along the frontstretch.
"It's natural in our industry and our sport, for NASCAR's regulatory responsibilities, to watch the evolution of a policy or procedure and learn from it and possibly react differently," NASCAR President Mike Helton said. "Although I would remind you in the incident with Carl Edwards and Keselowski in Atlanta, there was a reaction for us. There was points and money involved in that reaction, so there was some sort of reaction.
"There's been a lot of other occurrences that we felt like were more in opportunity to responsibility given to drivers along the way, but there are lines that have been crossed. The 18 [Busch] and 29 [Harvick] in Darlington got a reaction from us. [Friday night's truck race at Texas] is the most severe reaction under these circumstances."
Busch's actions at Texas clearly crossed the line of boys, have at it, and NASCAR sent the right message by parking him for the remainder of this weekend's activities.
If there's one thing Busch should learn from all of this...it's time to grow up.
<< Brees leads Saints over Bucs
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One week after looking so out-of-sorts
against a winless team, Drew Brees was at his methodical best to beat a pesky
division opponent.
Brees passed for 258 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, and t
<< Benn, Eriksson lead Stars past Hurricanes
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jamie Benn scored a pair of goals and Loui
Eriksson added three assists, as the Dallas Stars opened a four-game road trip
with a 5-2 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes.
Eric Nystrom, Stephane Robidas a
<< Ryan helps Falcons thump winless Colts
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Ryan went 14-for-24 with 275 yards,
three touchdowns and one interception, leading the Atlanta Falcons to a 31-7
thumping of the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Julio Jones caught three
<< Romo and Cowboys bounce back, beat Seahawks
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Romo threw two touchdown passes and the
Dallas Cowboys bounced back from a rough loss to take a 23-13 win over the
Seattle Seahawks.
Dallas was trounced in Philadelphia last week, 34-7, but improved
49ers keep rolling, subdue Redskins >>
Landover, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Smith threw for 200 yards and a
touchdown and Frank Gore ran for 107 yards, as the San Francisco 49ers earned
a 19-11 victory over the Washington Redskins.
Gore became the first player in San F
Brees, Saints get rebound win over Bucs >>
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One week after looking so out-of-sorts
against a winless team, Drew Brees was at his methodical best to beat a pesky
division opponent.
Brees passed for 258 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, and t
Report: Orioles hire Dan Duquette >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Duquette has been hired to replace Andy
MacPhail as president of baseball operations for the Baltimore Orioles,
according to a report.
Duquette's hiring will be announced Tuesday, according t
Sporting Lisbon wins sixth straight >>
Lisbon, Portugal (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matias Fernandez scored twice and Ricky
van Wolfswinkel added his seventh goal of the season, as Sporting Lisbon won
its sixth straight Portuguese Liga game, 3-1 over Uniao Leiria on Sunday.
Fernandez
American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies
It's that time of year folks. Betting on American Idol Season 9. And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below. With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.
No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.
Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.
Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.
Odds to Win
There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.
All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.
A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.
Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.
Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol.
Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.
If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.
Elimination Props
Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.
Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.
Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups
The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.
Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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